EdgeTake

3B · STL

Blaze Jordan — Runs

2026 runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
8
Runs
5
Per Game
0.63
Projection
0.49
Current Line
0.5
Outlook

Over 8 games this season, Blaze Jordan (STL) is averaging 0.63 runs per game, tracking close to that at 0.63 over the last 10. 38% of those games have finished over 0.5. Our model projects 0.49, roughly in line with the 0.5 market line.

Next matchup

Next: vs AZ — their staff ranks 19 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a average matchup for hitters.

Matchup & splits

Probable starter: Merrill Kelly (RHP)

vs LHP
.222
.666 OPS · 0 HR · 9 PA
vs RHP · tonight
.308
.833 OPS · 1 HR · 27 PA

Platoon splits are 2026vs left/right-handed pitching. Batter-vs-pitcher history is shown for context only — small samples aren’t predictive and don’t feed our projection.

Best price across books
Over 0.5 +175 BetMGMUnder 0.5 -190 DraftKings

At a line of 0.5 (draftkings), Blaze Jordan went over in 3 of 8 2026 games.

Our projection 0.49 vs market line 0.5 — edge -0.01.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.53/838%
1.52/825%

Share of 2026 games Jordan finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 8 avg
0.63
Season avg
0.63

Over 0.5 in 3 of the last 8 games.

Home / away splits

Home (3)
0.33
Away (5)
0.80
Home edge
-0.47

Per-game runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Runs

DateOppRunsvs Line
2026-06-13vs MIN0Under
2026-06-13vs MIN2Over
2026-06-14vs MIN0Under
2026-06-15vs SD0Under
2026-06-16vs SD1Over
2026-06-17vs SD0Under
2026-06-18vs KC2Over
2026-06-20vs KC0Under

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Blaze Jordan’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.