EdgeTake

1B · STL

Alec Burleson — Home Runs

2026 home runs — game-by-game log, hit rates at common lines, recent form, and our matchup-adjusted projection.

Games
91
Home Runs
15
Per Game
0.16
Projection
0.14
Current Line
1.5
Outlook

Alec Burleson (STL) has averaged 0.16 home runs per game across 91 games this season, with recent form ahead of that at 0.2 over the last 10. 0% of those games have finished over 1.5. Our projection of 0.14 comes in under the market line of 1.16.

Next matchup

Next: vs CIN — their staff ranks 23 of 30 in runs allowed (1 = stingiest), a favorable matchup for hitters.

Matchup & splits

Probable starter: Hunter Greene (RHP)

vs LHP
.195
.493 OPS · 2 HR · 129 PA
vs RHP · tonight
.320
.945 OPS · 13 HR · 304 PA

Career vs Hunter Greene: 2-for-10 (.200 AVG) over 11 PA.

Platoon splits are 2026vs left/right-handed pitching. Batter-vs-pitcher history is shown for context only — small samples aren’t predictive and don’t feed our projection.

Best price across books
Over 0.5 +750 Caesars

At a line of 1.5 (betrivers), Alec Burleson went over in 0 of 91 2026 games.

Our projection 0.14 vs market line 1.16 — edge -1.02.

Hit rate at common lines

OverClearedRate
0.515/9116%

Share of 2026 games Burleson finished above each line.

Recent form

Last 10 avg
0.20
Season avg
0.16

Over 1.5 in 0 of the last 10 games.

Home / away splits

Home (49)
0.12
Away (42)
0.21
Home edge
-0.09

Per-game home runs at home vs. on the road this season — ballpark and travel effects show up here.

Projection is our own model — adjusted for the next opponent’s pitching and ballpark.

2026 Game-by-Game — Home Runs

DateOppHome Runsvs Line
2026-03-26vs TB1Under
2026-03-28vs TB0Under
2026-03-29vs TB0Under
2026-03-30vs NYM0Under
2026-03-31vs NYM0Under
2026-04-01vs NYM0Under
2026-04-03vs DET0Under
2026-04-04vs DET0Under
2026-04-05vs DET0Under
2026-04-06vs WSH0Under
2026-04-07vs WSH0Under
2026-04-08vs WSH0Under
2026-04-11vs BOS0Under
2026-04-11vs BOS0Under
2026-04-12vs BOS1Under
2026-04-13vs CLE0Under
2026-04-14vs CLE0Under
2026-04-15vs CLE0Under
2026-04-18vs HOU0Under
2026-04-18vs HOU1Under
2026-04-19vs HOU0Under
2026-04-20vs MIA0Under
2026-04-21vs MIA0Under
2026-04-25vs SEA0Under
2026-04-25vs SEA0Under
2026-04-26vs SEA0Under
2026-04-27vs PIT0Under
2026-04-28vs PIT0Under
2026-04-29vs PIT1Under
2026-04-30vs PIT0Under
2026-05-02vs LAD1Under
2026-05-02vs LAD0Under
2026-05-03vs LAD0Under
2026-05-04vs MIL0Under
2026-05-06vs MIL0Under
2026-05-08vs SD1Under
2026-05-09vs SD0Under
2026-05-09vs SD0Under
2026-05-10vs SD0Under
2026-05-13vs ATH0Under
2026-05-14vs ATH0Under
2026-05-14vs ATH0Under
2026-05-16vs KC0Under
2026-05-16vs KC0Under
2026-05-17vs KC0Under
2026-05-19vs PIT1Under
2026-05-20vs PIT0Under
2026-05-21vs PIT0Under
2026-05-22vs CIN0Under
2026-05-23vs CIN0Under
2026-05-25vs MIL0Under
2026-05-26vs MIL0Under
2026-05-27vs MIL0Under
2026-05-29vs CHC0Under
2026-05-30vs CHC0Under
2026-05-31vs CHC0Under
2026-06-01vs TEX0Under
2026-06-02vs TEX0Under
2026-06-03vs TEX0Under
2026-06-06vs CIN1Under
2026-06-06vs CIN0Under
2026-06-07vs CIN0Under
2026-06-09vs NYM1Under
2026-06-10vs NYM1Under
2026-06-11vs NYM1Under
2026-06-13vs MIN1Under
2026-06-13vs MIN0Under
2026-06-14vs MIN1Under
2026-06-15vs SD0Under
2026-06-16vs SD0Under
2026-06-17vs SD0Under
2026-06-18vs KC0Under
2026-06-20vs KC0Under
2026-06-21vs KC0Under
2026-06-22vs AZ0Under
2026-06-23vs AZ0Under
2026-06-24vs AZ0Under
2026-06-27vs MIA0Under
2026-06-27vs MIA0Under
2026-06-28vs MIA0Under
2026-06-30vs ATL0Under
2026-07-01vs ATL0Under
2026-07-02vs ATL1Under
2026-07-03vs CHC0Under
2026-07-05vs CHC0Under
2026-07-05vs CHC0Under
2026-07-06vs MIL0Under
2026-07-07vs MIL0Under
2026-07-07vs MIL0Under
2026-07-08vs MIL1Under
2026-07-09vs MIL0Under

Stats: MLB Stats API. Lines via The Odds API when available. See Alec Burleson’s full profile and methodology.

MLB data last updated . Stats refresh each morning; odds and projections refresh through the day.